WW2010
University of Illinois

WW2010
 
welcome
 
online guides
 
archives
 
educational cd-rom
 
current weather
 
about ww2010
 
index

Online Guides
 
introduction
 
meteorology
 
remote sensing
 
reading maps
 
projects, activities

Meteorology
 
introduction
 
air masses, fronts
 
clouds, precipitation
 
el nino
 
forces, winds
 
hurricanes
 
hydrologic cycle
 
light, optics
 
midlatitude cyclones
 
severe storms
 
weather forecasting

Severe Storms
 
introduction
 
dangers of t-storms
 
types of t-storms
 
tstorm components
 
tornadoes
 
modeling

Modeling
 
introduction
 
supercells
 
convective lines
 
forecasting

Forecasting
 
introduction
 
forecast matrix
 
parameters
 
ncsa access article

NCSA Access Article
 
page 1
 
figure 1
 
page 2
 
figure 2
 
page 3
 
figure 3
 
page 4

User Interface
 
graphics
text

. Access Feature: Stormy Weather
 
[Image: Stormy Weather (22K)]
[Image: ] What sets ARPS apart is that it continually ingests data fine enough to capture essential storm details. Just as a checkbook's ending balance cannot be right if the starting balance is wrong, a forecast cannot be right if it starts with incomplete data. The starting balance for ARPS comes from geostationary satellites, ground-based observing systems, and the National Weather Services' new NEXRAD Doppler radar network

Distinctive, with a globe perched atop a scaffoldlike structure, Doppler radars record wind speed and direction -- essential for predicting how a storm will form and evolve -- every five minutes at 1-km spatial intervals throughout the 11 to 13 layers of the troposphere -- the 10 vertical miles that constitute the weather-producing portion of the atmosphere. The Weather Service installed the last of its 123 Doppler radars last summer, which are being tied in with another 23 Doppler radars at sites operated by the Department of Defense and the Federal Aviation Administration. The NEXRAD data are usually "thinned" to four layers before being transmitted to Weather Service headquarters in Silver Springs, MD, and on to weather reporting stations and commercial vendors. This thinning helps avoid network overloads but eliminates details. 

(Figure 3)

Droegemeier's center, however, receives the full-volume NEXRAD datastream from eight radars in the southern Great Plains through a project funded by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that uses an advanced statewide network called OneNet. The center's researchers were the first to devise a means for using these data in real time for storm predictions, and now ARPS runs daily. The center's researchers also developed techniques for retrieving the 3D dynamics of a storm from 1D data. Doppler radar measures wind motion parallel to the radar beam, which is only one dimension of the wind. "Think of this radial wind component as north-south," explains Droegemeier. "You also need east-west and up-down wind." Weather prediction models calculate about a dozen other variables, such as temperature, pressure, and moisture fields. 

The computational demands of digesting 1.5 gigabytes of Doppler data and then calculating these variables explains why Droegemeier's team needed all 128 nodes of NCSA's Origin2000 to run their model in real time. Earlier versions of ARPS were run on different supercomputers at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center. (ARPS was written to run efficiently on any parallel computer.) 

[Image: 1 ] [Image: 2 ] [Image: 4 ]

[Image: ] Generating 10 daily forecasts for 7 days straight required: 
  • 2 gigabytes of observational data per forecast 
  • 2 million computational cells 
  • 1 million billion floating point operations 
  • 6 billion floating point operations per second 
The forecasts were generated six times faster than real time -- that is, a one-hour forecast took 10 minutes or less -- and immediately posted to the Web. 
[Image: ]
[Image: ]



figure 2
Terms for using data resources. CD-ROM available.
Credits and Acknowledgments for WW2010.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences (DAS) at
the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

figure 3