WW2010
University of Illinois

WW2010
 
  welcome
 
> online guides
 
  archives
 
  educational cd-rom
 
  current weather
 
  about ww2010
 
  index

Online Guides
 
  introduction
 
> meteorology
 
  remote sensing
 
  reading maps
 
  projects, activities

Meteorology
 
  introduction
 
  air masses, fronts
 
  clouds, precipitation
 
  el nino
 
  forces, winds
 
  hurricanes
 
  hydrologic cycle
 
  light, optics
 
  midlatitude cyclones
 
> severe storms
 
  weather forecasting

Severe Storms
 
  introduction
 
  dangers of t-storms
 
  types of t-storms
 
  tstorm components
 
  tornadoes
 
> modeling

Modeling
 
  introduction
 
  supercells
 
  convective lines
 
> forecasting

Forecasting
 
  introduction
 
> forecast matrix
 
  parameters
 
  ncsa access article

User Interface
 
  graphics
> text

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Forecast Matrix
developing a environment to storm relationship

Severe storm modeling has provided forecasters with a useful learning tool -- forecast (or convective) matrices. These matrices serve to practically condense years of modeling research results and give forecasters quick access to relationships between environment and storm type.

A forecast matrix is built by making many simulations using different combinations of wind shear and CAPE that are representative of actual storm environments. Different storm behavior is observed in these different environments. The matrix shows these results to the forecaster in the form of low level and mid level radar signatures, cloud visualizations, wind patterns, and sometimes, a brief explanation. For example, below is a 3-D view of thunderstorms that develop in a high CAPE, high speed shear (no directional shear) environment.

[Image: (63K)]
The original source of this image is the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET®) of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Copyright © 1996 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. All Rights Reserved

Forecasters always have estimates of wind shear and CAPE. With these, they can refer to the matrix and can get a first estimation about the potential for any developing storm to be severe.

Unfortunately, environments can change very quickly and once a storm develops, it can change its own environment. This means that the matrix is best used as a guide, and other factors -- observations, forecast models, spotters, and experience -- are vitally important.



introduction
Terms for using data resources. CD-ROM available.
Credits and Acknowledgments for WW2010.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences (DAS) at
the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Parameters