WW2010
University of Illinois

WW2010
 
  welcome
 
> online guides
 
  archives
 
  educational cd-rom
 
  current weather
 
  about ww2010
 
  index

Online Guides
 
  introduction
 
> meteorology
 
  remote sensing
 
  reading maps
 
  projects, activities

Meteorology
 
  introduction
 
  air masses, fronts
 
  clouds, precipitation
 
> el nino
 
  forces, winds
 
  hurricanes
 
  hydrologic cycle
 
  light, optics
 
  midlatitude cyclones
 
  severe storms
 
  weather forecasting

El Nino
 
  introduction
 
  definition
 
  '97-'98 event
 
  upwelling
 
  non el nino years
 
  el nino events
 
  sea surface temps
 
  impacts on weather
 
  economic impacts
 
> prediction

User Interface
 
  graphics
> text

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Detection and Prediction of El Niño
current detection and numerical prediction systems

There are several means used for El Niño detection; satellites, moored ATLAS and PROTEUS buoys, drifting buoys, sea level analysis, and XBT's. Since El Niño influences global weather patterns and affects human lives and ecosystems, prediction of an El Niño event is becoming increasingly important. For short term prediction (up to 1 year) of climate variations, current observations in the Tropical Pacific are vital. Numerical models are used in many places for El Niño prediction and research. Here are some of the latest El Niño forecasts.

Given that numerical models predicting El Niño must do so months in advance, they are not as reliable as those used in predicting the weather, which forecast only days in advance. They have, however, progressed to the point where they can reproduce the characteristics of a typical El Niño event and some industries use these forecasts as an indicator of the coming fish harvest.

Forecasts are presented in terms of possible conditions for South America:
(1) near normal conditions,
(2) a weak El Niño with a slightly wetter than normal growing season,
(3) a full blown El Niño with flooding,
(4) cooler than normal waters offshore, with higher than normal chance of drought in South America.

Once the forecast is issued, management of agriculture, water supplies, fisheries, and other resources can be modified.



economic impacts
Terms for using data resources. CD-ROM available.
Credits and Acknowledgments for WW2010.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences (DAS) at
the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Forces, Winds