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Analyzing the Data:
Compare your forecasted values for each day
with the actual observations to determine
how accurate your forecasts were. For each temperature value, determine
the difference between the forecasted value and observed value.
Your forecasted temperature: 56
Observed temperature: 62
Error: 6 degrees
Accuracy of Temperature Forecasts:
Calculate the average error in your temperature forecasts by summing up
all the differences and dividing by the total number of temperature
forecasts made.
Avg Error = (sum of degrees error) / (total days forecasted)
Accuracy of Precipitation Forecasts:
For analyzing the precipitation forecasts,
how many days did you make a correct
forecast? Compute your percentage of accuracy by dividing the number of
correct precipitation forecasts by the total number of forecasts made.
% accuracy = { (number of correct forecasts) / (total forecasts) } *100%
Comparing Day 1 Forecasts with Day 2:
Perform the same calculations described above, but separately for
day 1 and separately for day 2.
- Was there a
difference in accuracy between day 1 forecasts and day 2?
- Was there a greater
error in temperature forecasts for day 2 values when compared with day 1?
- Were the precipitation forecasts more accurate for day 1 than for day 2?
- Use the calculated numbers to back up your results.
Why Were There Errors in Predicting Weather Conditions?:
During what types of weather conditions were your forecasts most
accurate? During which weather conditions did your values have the greatest
margins of error? When answering these questions, consult the observations
you took for each day that was forecasted. Consider factors like:
- Cloud Cover
- Winds
- Dew point temperatures
- Plus consider features like low
pressure centers
- Fronts
- Or other weather features that may have played a role
in your missed forecasts.
Final Analysis:
Here are some final questions to consider:
- What scaffolding activities did you complete?
- Did you show improved
accuracy in your forecasts after completing these activities?
- Describe
a situation in which you used the knowledge gained from these activities
to improve your forecast.
- What issues did you learn about weather forecasting
that you did not know before hand?
culminating project |
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meteorologist |